Phil Skinner/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Atlanta mayoral candidates Kasim Reed, from left, Mary Norwood, Jesse Spikes and Lisa Borders at the end of their televised debate this month.
ATLANTA — More than three decades after Maynard H. Jackson Jr. became the first African-American mayor of a major Southern city here, the era of uncontested black leadership in the cradle of the civil-rights movement is facing its first true test: A white city councilwoman leads the mayoral race by a wide margin just days before the Nov. 3 election.
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Phil Skinner/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Atlanta mayoral candidates Kasim Reed, from left, Mary Norwood, Jesse Spikes and Lisa Borders at the end of their televised debate this month.
Recent polls show Mary Norwood, a fiscal conservative who lives in a heavily white, wealthy section of Atlanta, with support ranging from 39% to 46% of likely voters. That puts her potentially within striking distance of winning outright next week or heading into a runoff with one of the two most prominent African-American candidates, City Council President Lisa Borders and former state Sen. Kasim Reed, both of whom have struggled to gather support from even 25% of voters.
Most striking in Ms. Norwood’s numbers is her level of support among widely fractured African-American voters. An InsiderAdvantage poll on Oct. 16 showed Ms. Norwood leading all candidates among black voters, with nearly a third of African-Americans supporting her.
Ms. Norwood’s position reflects demographic changes that are scrambling the established political order in parts of the South as well as moderating racial attitudes that increasingly have left African-Americans, whites and other ethnicities open to votes that defy conventional racial blocs.
Such contrarian politics have become increasingly common in the South. Earlier this month Memphis, Tenn., elected its second black mayor, A.C. Wharton, who endorses a plan to merge the city and surrounding Shelby County governments — a move that would eliminate a black voting majority in Memphis and boost the strength of other minorities.
In last year’s presidential election, Barack Obama garnered enough white votes in North Carolina and Virginia to become the first Democrat to win a Southern state since 1976 other than Bill Clinton’s 1992 win in his home state of Arkansas.
An August poll of Alabama voters showed U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, who is African-American, leading all Democratic primary candidates for governor. If successful, he would be the state’s first black governor.
Among the Southern cities where African-American political dominance arose from the 1960s civil-rights movement, Atlanta is the crown jewel. It has elected a line of mostly acclaimed black mayors, nursed a reputation for racial tolerance and is regarded as a mecca for aspiring black professionals.
But the city’s population, while still majority black, has grown steadily more white in the past decade, driven by the departures of African-Americans from public housing now demolished and the flight of upwardly mobile blacks to new suburbs.
As a result, African-American political strength has dispersed across the metro region, which has more than five million residents. The black majority has declined to 56% from 67% in the past decade, and the proportion of whites has grown to 36% from 30%.
The prospect that Atlanta could become the first majority-black Southern city to shift power back to a white mayor prompted local activists to write and circulate a memo urging blacks to consolidate behind Ms. Borders to block Ms. Norwood.
While race has hovered in the background of the campaign, the leading candidates have sparred mostly over who could most effectively attack an apparent spike in crime and improve the finances of city government. The race has become largely a referendum on who voters believe would most effectively address those issues.
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Robert Johnson/Ebony Collection
Maynard H. Jackson Jr., left, Atlanta’s first black mayor, is shown with boxing great Muhammad Ali, right, and attorney Leroy Johnson in 1970.
Ms. Borders and Mr. Reed have also accused Ms. Norwood of being a Republican and too conservative for left-leaning Atlanta. Ms. Norwood has steered away from the questions, saying she has voted for candidates of both parties but is a “committed independent.”
Ms. Norwood, 57 years old, has been aided by the lackluster campaigns of her opponents. Ms. Borders, the 53-year-old granddaughter of a revered pastor and civil-rights leader, is a long-established business executive and nonprofit board member. She entered the race with fanfare, but then dropped out unexpectedly before returning to the field again months later.
Mr. Reed, 40, is a former state representative and senator who ran the two campaigns of current Mayor Shirley Franklin. Ms. Franklin hasn’t publicly endorsed any candidate, but Mr. Reed has been backed by Andrew Young, a former mayor and top lieutenant of Martin Luther King Jr. Mr. Reed raised $1.5 million — more than any other candidate. But the campaign has struggled to find any traction.
Ms. Norwood was a longtime neighborhood activist before being elected to the City Council eight years ago. In office, she opposed taxes and objected to many policies of the popular Ms. Franklin while working to build grass-roots support in some black and lower-income areas.
“Mary kind of reminds me of Maynard [Jackson] when he first ran, always in the community, not just during elections,” said Rosel Fann, a 76-year-old black activist in southeast Atlanta.She voted for all four of Atlanta’s black mayors, but said she has no obligation to black candidates this year. “I don’t vote for color,” she said.
Write to Corey Dade at corey.dade@wsj.com
